PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF ENGINE/VEHICLE SALES SURVEY AVAILABLE SOON
NGVAmerica has just completed its survey of OEMs and SVMs concerning 2013 engine and vehicle sales, and is now aggregating and analyzing that data to glean useful market metrics and trends that the industry and policy makers may use in their future planning. Based on preliminary analysis of more than 25 companies’ data submittals, there was10.3 percent growth in overall NGV sales in 2013, with solid gains in light and heavy duty OEM sales. Based on fuel use estimates by vehicle type, overall transportation natural gas use increased an estimated 14.3 percent over 2012 to approximately 400 million GGE. This is double the fuel use estimated in a 2005 NGVAmerica report, in which a comprehensive station survey and verification analysis tallied 92,000 NGVs and 200 million GGE fuel use, a benchmark that took nearly forty years of slow but steady growth to achieve.
Highlights of that data compilation include the following:
•In 2012, approximately 17,450 “new” NGVs were sold in the U.S., comprising just over 8,300 retrofits/repowers and about 9,150 OEM vehicles. “New” vehicles included OEMs’ light and heavy duty factory-built vehicles and SVMs retrofits/ repowers of existing engines/vehicles, regardless of their original model year.
•Of that 2012 total, slightly less than 11,000 were light duty sedans, pick-ups and vans, ~1,100 were medium duty shuttles, step-vans and work trucks, and ~5,450 were heavy duty freight trucks, buses, refuse trucks and other vocational trucks.
•Attrition of older light, medium and heavy duty vehicles in 2012 was estimated at 7,500–8,000 vehicles resulting in a net increase of ~9,500–10,000 NGVs on U.S. roads for a total inventory of ~130,000 in 2012. Attrition was estimated based on expected life expectancy of natural gas transit buses deployed 1998–2001, scrapping of some of the earliest refuse trucks first deployed by Waste Management and other early adopters in the 2000–2003 time frame (and now likely sent to the boneyards after their “2nd life”), and projected end-of-life of a number of light duty cars, pick-ups and vans, and medium duty work trucks and shuttles deployed between 1996–2004.
•In 2013, approximately 19,250 “new” NGVs were sold, comprising ~6,400 retrofits/repowers and ~12,850 OEM vehicles.
•Of that 2013 total of all OEM and SVM, ~10,425 were light duty vehicles,
~1,450 were medium duty and ~7,375 were heavy duty.
•Attrition of older vehicles in 2013 was estimated at ~7,500 for a net gain of 11,750 NGVs on U.S. roads and a total U.S. NGV inventory of ~142,000.
•Based on extrapolations of previously collected vehicle inventory and fuel use data, supplemented by the latest new vehicle additions and attrition estimates, 2013 on-road vehicular natural gas fuel use was estimated at 400 million GGE.
This is a 14.3% increase over 2012 estimated fuel use. The discrepancy between the 9.0% increase in net NGV inventory and 14.3% increase in fuel use may be attributed to the net increase in medium and heavy duty vehicles, tempered by the number of HDVs that were deployed late in 2013 and thus had little impact on 2013 fuel use.
Additional analysis is underway and more metrics will be reported after evaluating data sets to assure confidentiality of each individual company’s information. Once analysis is complete, NGVAmerica will publish a more detailed analysis, distribute it to our members and make it available on our access-controlled Members Center. An executive summary of key findings will be posted on our web site and distributed to the press. In addition, we will include a high-level summary of this information in the opening general session of the upcoming NTEA Green Truck Summit being held in conjunction with the Work Truck Show in Indianapolis, Indiana, March 4–7.
The engine/vehicle data was solicited with the understanding that all individual company information would be kept confidential and that any reported summaries would mask individual vehicle models/type/class in a way that precludes “data mining” to determine competitors’ sales or market share. While industry participation was excellent, some data was not forthcoming due either to SEC rules governing divulgence of publicly-traded company results or a company policy regarding the sharing of sensitive proprietary data. When company-specific data was not available, NGVAmerica used an extensive cross- reference methodology to peg estimated sales; in these cases, we believe our data has an accuracy rate of +/- 3%.
This is the second year that NGVAmerica has collected this information; 2012 data was incomplete, missing itemized data sets from several key players and thus not reported out to the industry in any detail. However, after assuring confidentiality, NGVAmerica was able to secure missing 2012 data, complete its analysis and use it in comparisons of 2012 and 2013.